It may have been the most pivotal period in changing the fortunes of Lebanon, definitely in the last 30 years, and perhaps in all my lifetime. The past eight or nine months have turned our local world on its head, militarily, economically, and politically.
We have suffered continued violations of our sovereignty and deep disregard for the principles of peace. We have witnessed, without being able to put any stop to them, tides of airplanes, drones, and missiles cross our skies with the most ill of intents. Yet we have also witnessed the lifting of sanctions on Syria, signals of structural reform in our regional and national economy, and new investment blossoms. We have been reassured that our Lebanese democracy, flawed and vulnerable as all democracies are, is
alive and kicking on national and municipal levels.
But what puts our compunction even more into perspective of global risks are vast increases in global military spending – reported as 9.4 percent over recent years, reaching a record high of over $2.7 trillion in 2024 – and pivots away from development funding and humanitarian funding, such as a tripling in the European Investment Bank’s defense-related lending to €3.5 billion.
As nations focus on military build-up and self-reliance, commitments to multilateral institutions are weakening. The net effect of escalating defense spending and conflicts is a troubling retreat from the globalization of the past 35 years. Nations are becoming more selective, fragmented, and security conditioned, fundamentally altering the economic logic that drove global integration. The global consensus needed for climate finance, debt relief, and coordinated health responses could fragment, making global problems harder to solve.
Meanwhile in Lebanon, we see today more flares of hope even as we know that badly needed reconstruction funding and investment for growth and productivity still fall far short of reclaiming what has been taken from us in war and economic meltdown.
We cannot put our heads in the sand: our domestic policy process needs far greater diligence and care or our society’s constituents. But we have enough tested and proven
talent for pursuing a simultaneous social and economic miracle.
The most urgent issue today is that we cannot be sure if our process is now on a stable national path in its regional envelope. Will any visitor from the seats of global powers have our best interest at heart? Will our elected leaders be resilient against the old culture of corruption? Will our political system become a conduit of reform and balance?
Our small signs of hope need reassurance. Can we coexist in a global neighborhood, where our enemies constantly show us that they do not treat us as their equals? And how will the integration project of Lebanese and neighboring economies come into fruition? How can we avoid costly design mistakes and planning errors in a regional context of multiple uncertainty?
Nothing is certain in this region, not even uncertainty. But our little Lebanese flowers are blooming in the craters torn by bullets and bombs.